Golden Globes 2023 : Who Should Win in the Film and TV Categories?

With Jerrod Carmichael as host, the Golden Globes are hoping for a comeback and some winners that the industry and viewers will like.

With Academy Award nomination voting beginning on Thursday, January 12, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a chance to influence its winners as film awards season moves into phase two. With eight nominations, Searchlight Pictures’ Irish comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” leads the pack, followed closely by A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which received six nominations. One of the most exciting contests of the evening will be the competition for best musical or comedy film.

On the drama side, Universal Pictures’ “The Fabelmans” could easily win best picture (drama), but Warner Bros.’ “Elvis” and Paramount Pictures’ “Top Gun: Maverick” are well-liked by many HFPA voters.

The HFPA enjoys freshman shows on television but has rarely chosen the final “coronation” narrative. This is where HBO’s “House of the Dragon” or Apple’s “Severance” can win the drama race, while ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” or FX’s “The Bear” could be the sleeper pick in comedy.

Before the January 10 Golden Globe Awards, take a look at Variety’s breakdown of each film and television category. In addition, don’t miss Variety’s live red carpet pre-show, which will be hosted by Elizabeth Wagmeister and Marc Malkin.

Visit the Oscars Hub of Variety to view the most recent rankings for each category. For all of the season’s important dates and timelines, bookmark the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar.

Film Categories

Motion Picture (Drama), and the nominees are as follows:

“Avatar: The Way of Water (produced by 20th Century Studios)
Elvis (produced by Warner Bros.)
The Fabelmans (produced by Universal Pictures)
Tar (produced by Focus Features)
Top Gun: “Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Will Win: “Elvis”
Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Close and “Bones and All”

Remember how “Bohemian Rhapsody” took first place in this race? The group enjoys musicals and biopics, and “Elvis” has received a lot of attention in the industry. Since the enthusiasm for “Tár” may resemble that of “The Power of the Dog,” last year’s winner, I wouldn’t rule it out. However, the surprise selection might be the hugely successful sequel “Top Gun: Maverick,” which even demonstrates the organization’s maturity and development after Tom Cruise won three Golden Globes despite the controversy.

Motion picture (musical or comedy) Nominees include:

“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Will Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Could Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” and “RRR”

They adored “The Banshees of Inisherin,” as evidenced by eight leading nods, but “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is also well-liked in numerous circles. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on” and “RRR” Despite the fact that this is the Globes (hello, “The Hangover”), the other three nominees do not appear to be approaching the stage. I’m changing the name slightly to “Banshees.”

The nominees for director of motion pictures include:

James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”)
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Will Win: Baz Luhrmann
Could Win: Steven Spielberg
Should Have Been Nominated: Lukas Dhont and Chinonye Chukwu

Cameron and Spielberg have both won this category twice, and honestly, they could do it again. Lukas Dhont and Chinonye Chukwu Because only two directors have won from a comedy/musical nominee in the last 20 years—Robert Altman for “Gosford Park” in 2001 and Damien Chazelle for “La La Land” in 2016—I’m weary of the Daniels or McDonagh. That brings me to Luhrmann, who has received his second Globe nomination and may go along with an eventual “Elvis” sweep of the night. I’m going with Baz, a last-minute switch from Spielberg.

Actor in a Dramatic Motion Picture The nominees include:

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Hugh Jackman (“The Son”)
Bill Nighy (“Living”)
Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”)

Will Win: Austin Butler
Could Win: Brendan Fraser
Should Have Been Nominated: Mehdi Bajestani (“Holy Spider”)

“Holy Spider” The awards season’s whirlwind is always a wild ride. For “The Whale,” Brendan Fraser’s victory seemed like a foregone conclusion. Despite this, Austin Butler’s turn as the King of Rock and Roll might have been the perfect opportunity to win the statuette after he had lost some steam in recent weeks and decided not to attend the Globes because of their history. Following his LAFCA victory, Nighy may surprise the ranks, but that seems unlikely.

The nominees for actress in a drama film include:

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”)
Viola Davis (“The Woman King”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Could Win: Viola Davis or Michelle Williams
Should Have Been Nominated: Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)

The HFPA adores Cate Blanchett, and the organization has given her numerous statuettes to hang on her wall. With “Tár,” she seems sure to win again, but this would be a great chance for Michelle Williams to show that she is the spoiler and get a big win. In recent years, Nicole Kidman’s “Being the Ricardos” and Andra Day’s “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” were among the surprises in this category. I mention that so Ana de Armas can be monitored.

Actor in a Film (Comedy or Musical) The nominees include:

Diego Calva (“Babylon”)
Daniel Craig (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
Adam Driver (“White Noise”)
Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ralph Fiennes (“The Menu”)

Will Win: Colin Farrell
Could Win: Diego Calva
Should Have Been Nominated: Cooper Raiff (“Cha Cha Real Smooth”)

The easiest of the acting categories to call on the night. Farrell’s a previous winner for “In Bruges,” and if the HFPA is going all-in on “Everything Everywhere,” this is an easy place to reward the movie with the most noms.

Nominees for Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) include:

Lesley Manville (“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”)
Margot Robbie (“Babylon”)
Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Menu”)
Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
Could Win: Margot Robbie
Should Have Been Nominated: Keke Palmer (“Nope”)

With some history to be made, Yeoh’s win will make her the second Asian actress ever to do so after Awkwafina for “The Farewell” (2019), who failed to garner an Oscar nod. We’re expecting a much better outcome for Yeoh.

Nominees for Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture include:

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brad Pitt (“Babylon”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Could Win: Brendan Gleeson or Barry Keoghan
Should Have Been Nominated: Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)

This is the only competition where Ke Huy Quan might lose, but it wouldn’t matter to him on his way to the Oscar stage (similar to how Kodi Smit-McPhee beat Troy Kotsur last year). To accompany his co-stars’ victory in lead actor (comedy), Brendan Gleeson is the spoiler, but vote-splitting may prevent that. However, just like Aaron Taylor-Johnson did with “Nocturnal Animals” or Jodie Foster with “The Mauritanian,” I’m looking at Eddie Redmayne to make the room shake.

Nominees for Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture include:

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Carey Mulligan (“She Said”)

Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Could Win: Angela Bassett or Dolly De Leon
Should Have Been Nominated: Stephanie Hsu

The HFPA gives Jamie Lee Curtis, a great performer, credit for her good behavior. a winner twice, for “Anything But Love” in 1989 and “True Lies” in 1994. Curtis is the only actor who, during the height of the controversy the previous year, came out in support of the group and pre-recorded a video of support for their Twitter ceremony. However, keep an eye out for them to possibly consolidate their position as the front-runner for Angela Bassett, who has previously won for “What’s Love Got to Do with It?” 1993), making her the first and only Black woman to win the award for best comedy or musical actress.

The nominees for the screenplay are:

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) — Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
“Tár” (Focus Features) — Todd Field
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Sarah Polley

Will Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Could Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or “Tár”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Bones and All” and “She Said”

Another competitive race, and any of the five films has a chance of winning. Be on the lookout for the group to respond to the backlash caused by not nominating any women to direct by selecting Sarah Polley, who would be an excellent choice for its adapted screenplay campaign. This could also be an easy way to identify the auteur given that Todd Field was not nominated for the role of director. It might just come down to “Banshees” and “Everything,” the comedy contenders, with Martin McDonagh, who won for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” in 2017.

Original Score In addition, the nominees include:

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures) — Carter Burwell
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Babylon” (Paramount Pictures) — Justin Hurwitz
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) — John Williams

Will Win: “Women Talking”
Could Win: “Babylon” or “The Fabelmans”
Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Giacchino (“The Batman”)

Another chance to “make up” for the HFPA’s treatment of female filmmakers by selecting Hildur Gunadóttir, who would become the first composer to win twice. The group’s favorite, Justin Hurwitz, who won for “La La Land” (2016) and “First Man” (2018), and the legendary John Williams, who won for “The Fabelmans,” should be avoided.

Original Song Nominees include:

“Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” (Sony Pictures) — Taylor Swift
“Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) — Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios) — Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
Could Win: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Top Gun: Maverick”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Love is Not Love” from “Bros”

Star and music power typically dominates this category, making it simple to choose Lady Gaga or Rihanna. However, nothing will bring more joy than seeing the Indian-Tamil film “RRR” with the two stars present to perform a dance number on stage.

Motion Picture (Animated) Nominations include:

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
“Inu-Oh” (GKIDS)
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” (A24)
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Turning Red” (Pixar)

Will Win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Could Win: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” or “Turning Red”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Wendell and Wild”

Delivered to Guillermo del Toro, sealed, and signed.

Motion Picture in a Language Other Than English, and the nominees include:

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)
“Close” (Belgium)
“Decision to Leave” (South Korea)
“RRR” (India)

Will Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Could Win: “RRR”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Joyland” (Pakistan)

“RRR” is the only film to receive another award, giving it a slight advantage; however, “All Quiet on the Western Front” has been a smash hit and has Netflix backing. It probably squeezes it out.

Television Categories

Television Series (Drama) The nominees include:

“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
“Ozark” (Netflix)
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Will Win: “House of the Dragon”
Could Win: “Severance”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Yellowjackets”

The HFPA enjoys new shows like “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Boardwalk Empire,” and “Mr. Robot,” which bodes well for “House of the Dragon” and “Severance.” Or, they can stick to their old tricks, like the numerous awards that HBO’s “Succession” has received recently. That may assist Netflix’s “The Crown” in securing its third victory since 2016. Let’s give the “Dragon” the advantage.

The nominees for a comedy or musical television series include:

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Wednesday” (Netflix)

Will Win: “The Bear”
Could Win: “Abbott Elementary”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Afterparty”

The Afterparty, devoted fans of freshman series, hasn’t repeated a comedy series winner since “Glee,” starring Carol Burnett Award winner Ryan Murphy, in 2009 and 2010. Since “Hacks” won last year, I don’t think it will win again this year. This appears to be down to “Abbott Elementary” and “The Bear,” with a chance that “Wednesday” will finish in the middle, following in the footsteps of previous winners like “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (2013) and “Mozart of the Jungle” (2015). I believe that in Philadelphia, some international members have an easier time connecting with chefs than with teachers.

The nominees for limited series or television movies include:

“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
“The Dropout” (Hulu)
“Pam & Tommy” (Hulu)
“The White Lotus” (HBO)

Will Win: “The White Lotus”
Could Win: “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” or “The Dropout”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Patient”

This is the category in which the HFPA has a solid track record of not only selecting new winners like “The Underground Railroad” (2021) but also having a connection to the Emmys with shows like “The People v. O.J. Simpson: The successful TV Academy runs of “American Crime Story,” “Big Little Lies,” and “The Queen’s Gambit,” all began or ended in 2016. They could go with “The White Lotus” after completely ignoring it last year, even though I believe they are tempted to award it to “Monster” winner Ryan Murphy.

Television Actor (Drama) The nominees include:

Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”)
Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”)
Diego Luna (“Andor”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Adam Scott (“Severance”)

Will Win: Bob Odenkirk
Could Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Have Been Nominated: Jason Bateman

It is the last dance they can do with Bob Odenkirk for “Better Call Saul,” and they have previously honored actors in the final season of shows like “Mad Men,” where Jon Hamm starred. Bridges outperformed Odenkirk by a hair.

Television Actress (Drama) Nominees include:

Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”)
Laura Linney (“Ozark”)
Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)
Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”)
Zendaya (“Euphoria”)

Will Win: Zendaya
Could Win: Imelda Staunton
Should Have Been Nominated: Britt Lower (“Severance”)

“I don’t think they’ll pass up the opportunity to have one of the biggest stars in the world on their stage.” This is the first time they’ve nominated Zendaya. However, former “Crown” actors Olivia Colman and Claire Foy have previously won a large contingent for Imelda Staunton to play Queen Elizabeth II.

Actor for TV (Comedy or Musical) The nominees include:

Donald Glover (“Atlanta”)
Bill Hader (“Barry”)
Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”)
Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”)
Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”)

Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Could Win: Steve Martin
Should Have Been Nominated: Nathan Fielder (“The Rehearsal”)

With Jason Sudeikis out of the running for “Ted Lasso,” there is a chance to cast Jeremy Allen White, a newcomer, in “The Bear.” Funny thing is that Bill Hader has won two Emmys for “Barry,” but he has never won one. Now that he’s back, he could be a sentimental choice, as could either of the veterans Steve Martin or Martin Short.

Actress for TV (Comedy or Musical) The nominees include:

Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”)
Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”)
Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”)
Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”)
Jean Smart (“Hacks”)

Will Win: Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”)
Could Win: Quinta Brunson or Selena Gomez
Should Have Been Nominated: Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”)

Given that they gave Rachel Brosnahan the trophy twice for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” it’s not out of the question that they would award her with another trophy this year. She already received one from Jean Smart. However, right in front of them are two amusing newcomers: Jenna Ortega, a breakout star, and Quinta Brunson. Choosing Ortega out of the blue.

TV Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series, and the nominees include:

Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”)
Colin Firth (“The Staircase”)
Andrew Garfield (“Under the Banner of Heaven”)
Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)
Sebastian Stan (“Pam & Tommy”)

Will Win: Evan Peters
Could Win: Taron Egerton or Sebastian Stan
Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Carell (“The Patient”)

Evan Peters, by a mile. Next.

TV Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series, and the nominees include:

Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”)
Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”)
Lily James (“Pam & Tommy”)
Julia Roberts (“Gaslit”)
Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”)

Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
Could Win: Lily James
Should Have Been Nominated: Toni Collette (“The Staircase”)

Despite the fact that Lily James is gaining on Amanda Seyfried, I anticipate that the latter will complete her sweep of the television circuit in recognition of her stunning performance in the Hulu series.

Nominees for supporting actor in a drama or comedy television series include:

John Lithgow (“The Old Man”)
Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”)
John Turturro (“Severance”)
Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”)
Henry Winkler (“Barry”)

Will Win: John Turturro
Could Win: Tyler James Williams
Should Have Been Nominated: Chris Perfetti

This is the first time that the HFPA has divided its supporting television categories, which could make things easier for newcomers like Tyler James Williams, especially if they want to reward “Abbott” in some other way. However, I’m also thinking about how they could honor John Turturro’s brave work with “Severance.”

Nominees for Supporting Actress in a Drama or Comedy Television Series include:

Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”)
Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”)
Julia Garner (“Ozark”)
Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”)

Will Win: Elizabeth Debicki
Could Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph
Should Have Been Nominated: Rhea Seehorn

It’s common knowledge that the Globes might want to see Sheryl Lee Ralph move mountains again from the Emmys when she won. However, given that they rewarded Emma Corrin with a TV actress (drama) role two years ago, Debicki’s Princess Diana seems appropriate for their selection.

Supporting Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series, and the nominees include:

F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”)
Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”)
Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”)
Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)
Seth Rogen (“Pam & Tommy”)

Will Win: F. Murray Abraham
Could Win: Richard Jenkins
Should Have Been Nominated: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”)

It seems like a good place to show affection to “The White Lotus,” and who better than F. Murray Abraham? In fact, Richard Jenkins might enjoy a Ryan Murphy love fest, so keep an eye out for him.

Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series, and the nominees include:

Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”)
Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”)
Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Under the Banner of Heaven”)
Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)
Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”)

Will Win: Niecy Nash
Could Win: Jennifer Coolidge or Aubrey Plaza
Should Have Been Nominated: Laurie Metcalf (“The Dropout”)

The group did Jennifer Coolidge last year and could easily do it again. However, I think she and her co-star Aubrey Plaza might split votes. That might make it possible for one of “Monster’s bright spots,” Niecy Nash-Betts, who despite receiving four Emmy nominations is celebrating her first Golden Globe win.