The national ratings index from the U.S. Track & Field and Cross Country Coaches Association (USTFCCCA) provides insight into the top teams each week as we approach the Division I outdoor championships. The unveiling of the first rankings each year generates excitement and anticipation. However, how accurately do these initial rankings reflect the eventual champion of that year’s competition?
We examined the historical data of the women’s rankings, and here’s what we discovered.
How the initial USTFCCCA rankings forecast the champion
For the purposes of this article, LSU’s 2012 championship is not acknowledged due to the NCAA Committee on Infractions vacating its participation in the championships.
The history of the rankings
To grasp the relationship between the USTFCCCA rankings and the national champion, it is essential to first explore the history of these rankings.
The USTFCCCA initiated its outdoor track and field season rankings in 2008. The inaugural rankings were released during the preseason for outdoor track and field, a practice that continued until 2019.
However, the 2020 outdoor track and field season was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
After a year without rankings, they made a comeback in 2021, and for the first time, the USTFCCCA launched the season with Week 1 rankings instead of preseason rankings. In 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, Week 1 once again marked the beginning of the season’s rankings.
Behind the first No. 1
Each year, the initial rankings reveal a team sitting at the top. But what criteria are used to select the first No. 1?
Analyzing the rankings from 2008 to 2019 — a period when the first rankings were still conducted during the preseason — it becomes clear that the first No. 1 team in the nation was chosen based on the previous season’s championship performance and the talent returning.
On three occasions, including the last two years of Texas A&M’s three consecutive championships from 2009 to 2011, the defending champion was designated as the preseason No. 1. Additionally, there were three instances where the preseason No. 1 was the runner-up from the previous year. Notably, every preseason No. 1 ranked among the top four in NCAA championship scoring during the prior year for the first 13 years of the rankings.
It wasn’t until the Week 1 ranking of 2022 that Texas deviated from this trend, rising from a seventh-place finish the previous year. In 2023 and 2024, defending champions Florida and Texas found themselves unranked in the Week 1 poll, which was released just 16 days after the indoor championships. By 2025, the defending champion Arkansas began the season ranked No. 12 in Week 1.
| Year | First No. 1 | Prior Year Finish |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | LSU | Runner-up |
| 2009 | Texas A&M | Third |
| 2010 | Texas A&M | Champion |
| 2011 | Texas A&M | Champion |
| 2013 | Kansas | Fourth |
| 2014 | Texas A&M | Runner-up |
| 2015 | Texas A&M | Third |
| 2016 | LSU | Fourth |
| 2017 | Oregon | Runner-up |
| 2018 | Arkansas | Third |
| 2019 | Southern California | Champion |
| 2021 | LSU | N/A |
| 2022 | Texas | Seventh |
| 2023 | LSU | Fourth |
| 2024 | LSU | Seventh |
| 2025 | Southern California | Tenth |
What does it all signify?
It signifies that the team ranked No. 1 in the initial rankings of the season typically has a solid history of achievement. The first teams to secure the top position in the rankings have earned it, but that doesn’t guarantee they will maintain that lead throughout the season.
However, as more teams choose to hold back their best runners for their outdoor debuts until after Week 1 — allowing for additional recovery from the indoor season — the significance of preseason rankings starts to diminish.
Where did the champions stand at the season’s start?
From 2008 to 2021, no team clinched the women’s outdoor track and field championship after beginning the season ranked lower than fourth. In 2022, Florida made history as the first team outside the top four to claim the title, starting the season at No. 5. In 2023, Texas became the first team ranked outside the top 25 (No. 80) to win the championship. In 2024, Arkansas made headlines as the first unranked team from the initial rankings to take home the title. In 2025, Georgia defied the recent pattern by winning the championship after starting the season ranked No. 6.
In seven out of the 16 eligible years leading up to 2024, the women’s outdoor champion began the season ranked first overall.
This indicates that 44 percent of the time, the first USTFCCCA rankings can predict who the national champion will be, simply by examining the No. 1 team. However, the No. 2 team in the initial rankings has NEVER secured the national championship. Only once has the No. 3 team at the season’s start, 2016 Arkansas, won the title, while the No. 4 team has impressively won the championship four times since the inception of the USTFCCCA rankings.
| Year | Champion | Initial Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | LSU | 1 |
| 2009 | Texas A&M | 1 |
| 2010 | Texas A&M | 1 |
| 2011 | Texas A&M | 1 |
| 2013 | Kansas | 1 |
| 2014 | Texas A&M | 1 |
| 2015 | Oregon | 4 |
| 2016 | Arkansas | 3 |
| 2017 | Oregon | 1 |
| 2018 | Southern California | 4 |
| 2019 | Arkansas | 4 |
| 2021 | Southern California | 4 |
| 2022 | Florida | 5 |
| 2023 | Texas | 80 |
| 2024 | Arkansas | NR |
| 2025 | Georgia | 6 |
What became to the top seeds that failed to win the championship?
Nine times, the first-ranked teams failed to win the championship. All nine have occurred in the last ten years, with Oregon’s 2017 season being the only exception. The No. 1 team has not won the championship in any of the previous seven years. The preseason and initial No. 1 seeds that did not win the championship are listed below, along with their final championship standings.
| YEAR | First No. 1 | Championship finish |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Texas A&M | Third |
| 2016 | LSU | Sixth |
| 2018 | Arkansas | Eleventh |
| 2019 | Southern California | Runner-up |
| 2021 | LSU | Sixth |
| 2022 | Texas | Runner-up |
| 2023 | LSU | Seventh |
| 2024 | LSU | Sixth |
| 2025 | Southern California | Runner-up |
What insights can history provide for the upcoming seasons?
The past records of the initial USTFCCCA rankings offer promising news for any team that starts the season in the leading position of the Week 1 rankings. That team will enjoy just under a 50-50 chance of clinching the title.
However, the historical data does not bode well for the team ranked No. 2 in the season’s first national ratings index. On the other hand, teams ranked third and fourth should remain optimistic.
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