PGA Championship 2025 Prediction: McIlroy vs. Scheffler—Who Comes Out on Top?

Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler 2025 PGA Championship

Xander Schauffele is the defending champion going into the 2025 PGA Championship at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte. With a final-round score of 66 at Valhalla Golf Club last year, Schauffele held off strong competition to win his first major victory in his career. Schauffele rounds into form and is ranked third in the Official World Golf Ranking. Schauffele has able to achieve a T8 finish in the Masters and a T18 at the RBC Heritage despite battling a wrist injury earlier in the 2025 season. He has a championship pedigree and has finished in the top 10 in the majors 12 times since 2017.

Schauffele is 19-1 in the 2025 PGA Championship odds, behind a strong field that includes Scottie Scheffler (+500) and Rory McIlroy (+500), the favorites. Make sure to view the golf predictions and predicted leaderboard from SportsLine’s tested computer model before committing to any PGA DFS events on websites like DraftKings and FanDuel or locking in your 2025 PGA Championship picks.

Since the PGA Tour returned in June 2020, SportsLine’s proprietary model—which was developed by DFS pro Mike McClure—has been incredibly popular. The model has won tournament after tournament and is up over $9,000 on its best wagers since the restart.

This same model has also won 14 majors going into this weekend, including the U.S. Open and PGA Championship from the previous year, as well as the 2025 Masters, which is its fourth consecutive Masters. Following its sports betting advice might have resulted in huge profits for users of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics betting apps.

Now that the 2025 PGA Championship field is locked in and fans are determining where they will bet on the PGA Championship, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were shocking. To view the anticipated leaderboard and obtain the most recent PGA Championship coupon codes, visit SportsLine right now.

Predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele at the 2025 PGA Championship

The model predicts that Xander Schauffele, the reigning champion and two-time major winner, will barely make the top 10 on the leaderboard at the 2025 PGA Championship. In 2024, Schauffele defeated DeChambeau by a single stroke to win his first major championship at the PGA Championship. He hasn’t experienced victory since winning the Open Championship at Royal Troon in July of last year.

In the early months of 2025, Schauffele missed two months of action due to a rib injury. This season, the 31-year-old has only finished in the top ten once, and his lack of consistency off the tee will be a big problem at a course like Quail Hollow. Schauffele starts the 2025 PGA Championship ranked 162nd in strokes gained off the tee (-0.439) and 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%). In terms of scrambling (55.80%), one-putt percentage (38.19%), and scoring average (71.04), he is likewise outside the top 150. FanDuel Sportsbook is starting Schauffele at 19-1.

Additionally, the algorithm has locked in its prediction for the newest Grand Slam champion and five-time major winner, Rory McIlroy. On the PGA Tour, McIlroy has won 27 times in his career, including three in 2025. After winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to start the year, he went on to win the Players Championship, and most recently, he won the 2025 Masters to complete a career Grand Slam.

At Quail Hollow, McIlroy has a long history of success. In addition to finishing in second place and four additional top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, he has finished at the top of the scoreboard four times. One of the main reasons McIlroy is one of the leading contenders to win the 2025 PGA Championship is his familiarity with the course and his recent performance.

Scottie Scheffler’s prospects of winning his first major outside of Augusta National have also been analyzed by the model. Scheffler has won 14 times on the PGA Tour and twice at the Masters, but he has yet to win a PGA Championship. After placing T4 in his debut at the event in 2020, he has subsequently scored three top-10 finishes.

In the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Scheffler shot 31 under to dominate the field and just won his first victory of the year. He finished in fourth place in the Masters and has finished in the top 25 in every event he has participated in this year. With the exception of the 2022 Presidents Cup, this will be his first individual event at Quail Hollow. View all of the model’s predictions for the PGA Championship here.

How to pick for the 2025 PGA Championship

Four golfers with odds longer than 20-1 who will have a serious run at the championship are also the focus of the model. Anyone who invests in these longshots has a chance to succeed. Only the model’s selections are seen here.

Which longshots will surprise the golf world, who will win the 2025 PGA Championship, and where will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler finish? Below are the most recent 2025 PGA Championship odds. To view the projected leaderboard, visit SportsLine. This model has won 14 majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024.