March Madness Bracket Tracker: Know Who’s In, Who’s Out & Bubble Teams in the NCAA Tournament

The competition for a spot in the 2025 March Madness is getting more obvious as conference championships heat up across. The field of 68 is beginning to take shape with the security of automatic bids, and the margin of error is rapidly decreasing for teams on the bubble.

The SEC Tournament in Nashville will be one of the most anticipated events since the conference wants to break the record for the most bids in a single NCAA Tournament. Texas is currently in the first four out, while Arkansas and Oklahoma are in the last four byes and last four in categories, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

The SEC is just one part of the bubble watch. For teams hoping to join Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, and Purdue in the bracket, the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis will be crucial. They might guarantee their spot in the competition with a successful performance.

Even though they seem to be playing safely, some teams still need to improve. Their placement and March Madness trajectory could be impacted by a subpar showing in their conference tournament. Nothing is certain in a tournament where shocks are guaranteed.

As Selection Sunday draws near, here’s a current look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, highlighting which teams are locked in, on the bubble, and fighting for an a spot.

March Madness Bracket Bubble Watch Tracker

Tracker based on games through Tuesday, March 12

NCAA Tournament locks

ACC (3): Duke, Clemson and Louisville
Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Oregon, UCLA and Illinois
Big 12 (5): Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona and BYU
Big East (4): St. John’s, Marquette, Creighton and UConn
SEC (9): Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Missouri and Ole Miss
Other (3): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga and San Diego State

Marquette is still certain to play in the Big East Tournament even though they have lost three of their previous five games, including a devastating overtime buzzer-beater against then-No. 6 St. John’s. With a 12-9 record versus Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, including important victories against Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin, the Golden Eagles are ranked No. 25 in the NET rankings.

After dropping four of its last six regular-season games, Ole Miss is the team closest to moving into the “likely in” category among the nine SEC schools that are guaranteed spots in the NCAA Tournament.

In the meantime, Michigan State has the highest Final Four chance of any league club in the Big Ten. The Spartans have a 13.2% probability of going all the way to the Final Four, per ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index.

NCAA Tournament likely in

ACC: None
Big Ten: None
Big 12 (2): Kansas and West Virginia
Big East: None
SEC (1): Vanderbilt
Other (1): Memphis

Memphis is the favorite going into the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, and a conference title win would guarantee an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. The most likely candidate to represent the AAC in March Madness is North Texas, but if the Tigers lose, another team might take their place.

NCAA Tournament bubble teams

ACC: UNC
Big Ten: Indiana and Ohio State
Big 12: Baylor
Big East: Xavier
SEC: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas
Other: Boise State, VCU, George Mason, Dayton, North Texas and San Diego State

North Carolina lost to Duke 82-69 in the Dean Center on Saturday, missing a chance to guarantee a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Despite the limited opportunities, the Tar Heels still need to secure significant victories to bolster their resume as they enter the ACC Tournament.

As one of the most dominant teams in the conference, Xavier has won eight of its previous nine games going into the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. For the first time since 2023, Sean Miller’s team may break out of the bubble and qualify for the tournament with a strong showing in New York, which begins with a pivotal game against No. 23 Marquette on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. ET. According to ESPN’s analytics model, the Musketeers have a 59% chance of qualifying for the Big Dance.

The top three teams vying for the conference’s automatic bid at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., are VCU, George Mason, and Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. VCU had the highest NET ranking of the three, and it shared the A-10 regular season championship with George Mason.

According to bracketology guru Joe Lunardi, San Diego State and Xavier will play another First Four game, and Ohio State and Oklahoma will play each other in Dayton.

March Madness: When Does It Start?

Date of the First Four of the Men’s NCAA Tournament: Tuesday, March 18
March Madness really begins on Tuesday, March 18, when the First Four games are held at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, but Selection Sunday formally sets the field. On Thursday, March 20th, the first round then starts.