Dallas Mavericks Win NBA Draft Lottery with 1.8% Odds

The Dallas Mavericks decisively defeated the Luka Doncic trade on Monday, taking home the NBA draft lottery and the right to select Duke’s Cooper Flagg with the first overall selection in June.

ESPN Research reports that the Mavericks made the largest move by jumping 10 slots to get the #1 pick in lottery history, despite having a 1.8% probability of winning.

Only three months after Dallas traded Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in February—a move that sparked intense fan outrage—the team achieved an unexpected lottery victory.

“I am so happy for Mavericks fans,” Dallas CEO Rick Welts said, clutching the envelope with the No. 1 emblazoned on it. “I only got to Dallas Jan. 1 this year. Feb. 1, we broke the internet [with the Doncic trade]. I am just amazed at the depth of emotion and connection that the fan base has with this team. And what happened today, I can’t imagine a better day for Mavs fans. It’s going to really be something special. I can’t wait to get back to Dallas.”

Since August 2023, when he declared the plan to graduate from high school one year early and enroll in college at the age of 17, 6-foot-9 forward Flagg has been the front-runner to be the first choice in the draft.

Flagg exceeded expectations by winning almost every major national player of the year award, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and leading the Blue Devils (35-4) to a Final Four appearance, even though he was one of the most eagerly awaited freshmen to enter the collegiate game in a number of years.

“I don’t know who we’re going to take, but should we take him, I think his résumé is pretty strong,” Welts stated. “Every time he’s put in a situation that everyone wondered if he could succeed, he’s succeeded and then some.”

Philadelphia will select third, Charlotte will select fourth, and San Antonio, who have two rookies of the year in Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama, will select second.

“When you jump into the top four again, you put yourself as an organization in a place to make a really big acquisition with a really good player,” Mitch Johnson, the Spurs coach, said. “And that’s what we’re going to look forward to doing.”

Washington (18-64), Charlotte (19-63), and Utah (17-65) had the highest probability of winning the lottery going into the evening (14%), followed by New Orleans (21-61) at 12.5%. Utah (ranked fifth) and Washington (ranked sixth) had the two poorest NBA records the previous season, but they were still outside the top four.

The team with the lowest record has not yet won the draft lottery under the 2019 approach of flattening lottery odds to discourage tanking.

Houston will be ranked 10th, Portland 11th, Chicago 12th, Atlanta 13th, San Antonio 14th, Brooklyn 8th, Toronto 9th, and New Orleans 7th.

Following a recent trend of upsets at the top of the draft, Dallas’ lottery victory comes after Atlanta’s 3% odds victory last year.

The clubs at the top of the draft will closely monitor Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, two freshmen from Rutgers who are predicted to be selected after Flagg.

Harper, a 6-foot-6 point guard, finished as the fifth-best scorer in the Big Ten Conference and shattered the freshman scoring record at Rutgers. He is a very good candidate to be selected early due to his exceptional ballhandling skills, passing inventiveness, finishing proficiency, and overall scoring ability.

“This draft is really strong at the top, especially in the top three and we’re very excited,” stated Daryl Morey, president of basketball operations for the 76ers.

Following Harper, a number of players will compete to be the next to hear their names called in the first round, including Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Texas wing Tre Johnson, Oklahoma guard Jeremiah Fears, and Duke center Khaman Maluach.

The draft will be held at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on June 25 and 26 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN).